ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s fuel supply chain is once again facing mounting pressure as critically low petrol inventories, delayed imports, rising international oil prices, and unresolved financial issues raise concerns over a potential fuel shortage.
Industry officials warn that a combination of domestic policy delays and geopolitical tensions—particularly disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb—has heightened the risk of supply disruptions, placing additional strain on the country’s energy security.
According to industry data, Pakistan’s available petrol stocks have declined to approximately 379,442 tonnes, including local refinery production, sufficient for only 14 days of consumption at current demand levels.
Petrol sales during the first 13 days of July averaged around 25,000 tonnes per day, nearly 16% above projections and 26% higher than the same period last year. The sharp increase is largely attributed to consumer and dealer purchases ahead of an anticipated rise in petroleum prices.
Industry stakeholders caution that if demand continues at the current pace, existing inventories could come under severe pressure before fresh import cargoes reach the country.
Although shipments carrying around 153,000 tonnes of petrol are expected in the coming days, supply plans have already suffered setbacks. A scheduled 37,000-tonne import cargo failed to materialise after not receiving approval last month, while another planned import involving four oil marketing companies (OMCs) has reportedly been cancelled.
Adding to the challenge are delays in customs clearance under the WeBOC system, which industry representatives say are slowing the release of imported fuel from ports. In a market operating with limited inventories, even administrative delays can significantly disrupt timely fuel distribution across the country.
The industry has also expressed concern over the government’s failure to release approximately Rs66.7 billion in outstanding Price Differential Claims (PDCs) owed to oil marketing companies.
According to sector estimates, the pending payments are sufficient to finance the import of nearly 250,000 tonnes of petrol, equivalent to almost five cargoes, which could substantially improve national fuel reserves.
Oil marketing companies argue that they have continued ensuring uninterrupted fuel supplies despite currency depreciation, volatile global oil prices, and rising financing costs. However, they warn that prolonged delays in receiving outstanding payments are weakening their financial capacity to finance additional imports.
While high-speed diesel (HSD) stocks remain relatively comfortable at around 500,000 tonnes, supported by domestic refinery production, industry officials caution that panic buying and dealer hoarding could also put pressure on diesel availability if market uncertainty increases.
The Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) has formally alerted the government to the emerging situation. In a letter addressed to Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik, the council warned of an imminent petrol shortage, highlighting critically low saleable inventories, customs clearance bottlenecks, cancelled import cargoes, and surging consumer demand.
The OCAC also stressed that the unresolved Rs66.7 billion PDC payments have created a severe liquidity crisis for oil marketing companies, limiting their ability to secure timely fuel imports.
Industry stakeholders have urged the federal government and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to immediately release pending payments, expedite customs procedures, and facilitate the smooth movement of imported cargoes to prevent another nationwide fuel supply crisis.
Officials warn that without swift intervention, Pakistan could witness a repeat of previous shortages marked by panic buying, fuel hoarding, and dry-outs at filling stations, as petrol demand continues to outpace expectations while inventories remain at multi-year lows.
Story by Zafar Bhutta
